| As a blackjack player you must
learn at least the basic strategy. Use this
strategy and the house edge will drop below one
percent. If you want to gain an advantage over the
house you have to use advanced card counting
systems. The best possible strategy for all
players who are not counting cards, basic strategy
represents the proper way to play when you take
into consideration only your hand and the dealer's
upcard. Different playing conditions require
different playing strategies.
Is it possible to win in the long run? The
answer to that question is: Yes. And No. It is
definately possible to play blackjack for many
years as recreation and for fun and win money on
the whole. But, on the other hand, if you let a
computer play millions of rounds of blackjack even
with the optimal strategy (card counting) it will
lose.
One way to improve the chance of winning is to
use statistical analysis to predict the outcome of
various hands. The player then plays the way that
is statistically the most likely to result in a
win.
Because the dealer must play using the house
rules he/she must always hit with a hand of 16 or
less and stand with a hand of 17 or more (some
casinos allow the dealer to hit on a soft 17). One
of the dealer's cards is face-up for all to see,
and the following predictions for the dealer going
bust have been computed.
| Dealers
face-up card is: |
2 3
4 5 6 7 8
9 10 Ace |
| Percentage chance of
busting: |
35 37 40 42 42 26 24 23
23 17 |
It can now be seen that the dealer has a better
chance of busting when his face-up card is a six
or smaller value card, and less if the face-up
card has a value of seven or more. Using this
information the following blackjack strategy was
developed:
Soft Hand Rules (Ace counted as a one OR an
eleven)
Most casinos allow an ace to be played as either a
1 or 11, whichever value is most beneficial to the
holder. When a player has an ace that is being
used as an 11, it's referred to as a "soft
hand". These hands are played differently as
the player cannot draw to a soft hand and bust
(the player just revalues the Ace to count as 1
instead of 11).
The basic strategy for playing soft hands is to
double down when the dealer has a high probability
of busting (low value face-up cards).
| Players Hand |
Strategy |
| Soft 19 or 20 |
Stand |
| Soft 18 |
Stand if the dealer is showing 2,7 or
8.Hit if the dealer is showing 9,10 or
Ace.Double if the dealer is showing 3,4,5
or 6. |
| Soft 17 |
Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 7, 8, 9,
10 or Ace.Double if the dealer is showing
3,4,5 or 6. |
| Soft 16 or 17 |
Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 3, 7, 8,
9, 10 or Ace.Double if the dealer is
showing 4,5 or 6. |
| Soft 14 or 13 |
Hit if the dealer is showing 2, 3, 4, 7,
8, 9, 10 or Ace.Double if the dealer is
showing 5 or 6. |
In the event that you are dealt a card that
changes your hand from a soft hand (Ace = 11) to a
hard hand (Ace = 1) then change strategies to the
hard hand rules discussed previously.
Card counting
The technique of card counting allows the
player to take note of changing probabilities and
by altering playing and betting strategies
accordingly, they can gain a statistical advantage
over the casino.
To learn the the skill of card counting is
relatively simple. And no - you don't need to have
a photographic memory or a freakish mathematical
ability.
The card counting system described below is
designed only as a rough guide to give you an idea
how card counting is done. It is not recommended
that it be put to use in a practical sense. This
is intended only to give a feel for how card
counting is done, and is not recommended for
actual practice.
For single deck games:
1. Start the count at -4 when the deck is
shuffled.
2. Count -2 for 10, J, Q, K.
3. Count +1 for everything else (including Aces).
4. Bet low when the count is negative, high when
the count is positive (actually, simulations show
that you can bet high for a count of -2 or above).
5. Take insurance when the count is positive.
6. Play basic strategy at all times.
Something to know about card counting
The principle behind card counting is that a
deck of cards rich is tens and Aces is favorable
to the player, a deck rich in small cards is
favorable to the dealer. A deck rich in tens and
Aces, is likely to bust the dealer more often.
To gauge the richness of the deck in high cards
or lack of them, the player needs to keep track of
the cards that are already played and assign a
point value to each card. The calculation is quite
complex, but basically the card counter will give
a plus point each time the deck of cards becomes
more favorable and a minus point each time it
becomes less favorable. Basically, the high cards
have a -1 point and the low cards a +1 point and
the in between 0 point.
The counter then counts by adding and
subtracting points according to the cards played
and keeps a running total of the count called
'running count'. Then he also needs to divide the
running count by the proportion of the size of the
deck of cards left to get the 'true count'. Now he
knows the relative richness of high cards in the
remaining deck.
A positive count is good and a high positive
count is best and the card counter will assess his
hand, the dealer's up card, weigh up his options
and intensify his betting accordingly.
To be a successful card counter you need to
have a powerful memory and fast reaction while
amassing information as you play. And for what? If
everything works out well, you will be looking at
a slow and tedious 1% average profit. If you wager
large sums of money to make the 1% worthwhile, you
are likely to be noticed by the pit boss and
prompt frequent shuffling of the cards. Card
counting is hard, not liked by the casinos and is
not as rewarding as it may seem.
Do you want to read more about
Blackjack:
• Introduction
• Rules
• Strategy
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