| The Strategy of
Baccarat |
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Baccarat is a game of pure
luck. The game is played using a fixed set of
rules for the player and the dealer, and these
rules represent the best odds of winning for both
the player and for the house. Calculations have
been made that show the odds of the player winning
are 44.62%, losing 45.85%, and 9.53% to tie. Thus
it would seem to be to your advantage to bet on
the house winning on every hand.
Baccarat systems are few and far between. That is,
systems that are designed specifically for that
game, but many other mathematical betting systems
may fair well in this general card game.
You may have heard of the 1 - 3 - 2 - 6 baccarat
system. With this approach you keep track of what
you bet over the course of four hands. The
objective of course is to bet a little with the
potential for a larger return. With this specific
baccarat system, you can risk two dollars for a
return of ten.
It goes like so:
- First, bet one unit. If you win add another,
making the second bet a total of three units.
- If you win the second bet there are six
units on the table. Remove four, making the
third bet two units.
- If the third bet wins, add two more units
for a total of six on the fourth bet.
- If the fourth bet wins, you collect a total
of 12 units, ten of pure profit.
So if you lose the first bet using this baccarat
system, you lose one unit. If you win the first
bet but lose the second, that's two units you've
lost. If you win the second bet but lose the third
bet, your profit is two units. If you win the
first three bets but lose the fourth, you break
even. If you lose the second bet five out of six
times, and then win four consecutive bets once,
you break even.
This baccarat system works by the nature of the
game being and even-money odds game. The same
system will work for any casino game that pays out
even-money.
This system will work only in the short term. The
casino's always win in the long run... don't doubt
it.
To even out the odds the house charges a
commission (usually 5%) on winning player bets
placed on the house. How should this change the
way a player wagers?
Factoring in the commission it turns out that you
are still slightly better off by betting that the
house will win. This assumes the commission is the
usual 5%, however, should the commission change
then you have to change strategy. If the
commission is less than 5% then it is always to
your advantage to bet with the house, while if the
commission is more than 5% it pays to bet on the
player winning.
Removing the tie hands in the event there is no
payoff, the odds of the player winning are 49.32%
and for losing 50.68%. For various commissions we
can calculate the following average payoffs then,
assuming 100 wagers of $1 were made.
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4% commission
|
Betting on the player
|
Betting with the house
|
|
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Winning
|
$49.32
|
$50.68 * 96% $48.65
|
|
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Losing
|
$50.68
|
$49.32
|
|
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Difference
|
($1.36)
|
($0.67)
|
|
You lose less by betting with the dealer.
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5% commission
|
Betting on the player
|
Betting with the house
|
|
| |
Winning
|
$49.32
|
$50.68 * 96% $48.65
|
|
| |
Losing
|
$50.68
|
$49.32
|
|
| |
Difference
|
($1.36)
|
($1.17)
|
|
You lose less by betting with the dealer.
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6% commission
|
Betting on the player
|
Betting with the house
|
|
| |
Winning
|
$49.32
|
$50.68 * 96% $48.65
|
|
| |
Losing
|
$50.68
|
$49.32
|
|
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Difference
|
($1.36)
|
($1.68)
|
|
You lose less by betting with the dealer.
Baccarat sometimes allows for a bet to be made for
a tie, and sometimes doesn't (mini baccarat
typically played online usually does). Although
the odds of 8 to 1 may sound appealing, it is
considered one of the worst wagers in the casino,
so don't bother making this bet part of your
baccarat strategy.
Do you want to read more about
Baccarat:
• Introduction
• History
• Rules
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